Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 17.647547 20.448726 23.483150 27.005987 30.974450 35.297580 40.354161
2024-12-22 12.821884 16.584852 21.045059 26.681949 33.572550 41.675702 51.875746
2024-12-29 10.400690 14.778011 20.374285 27.956851 37.852047 50.205553 66.655051
2025-01-05 8.447112 13.056935 19.358432 28.426994 40.936226 57.350291 80.236303
2025-01-12 6.907004 11.537359 18.264095 28.479544 43.272704 63.535376 92.915837
2025-01-19 5.749146 10.320954 17.344352 28.540990 45.470754 69.549248 105.666726
2025-01-26 5.273610 10.060198 17.764322 30.546088 50.561364 79.899486 125.105936
2025-02-02 4.733833 9.582786 17.747270 31.818944 54.594564 88.932391 143.177463
2025-02-09 4.260550 9.128731 17.683454 32.963083 58.462104 97.911589 161.660270
2025-02-16 3.678876 8.365549 16.974582 32.923608 60.378098 103.969125 176.020087
2025-02-23 3.085851 7.466171 15.889203 32.086076 60.852915 107.727003 186.960237
2025-03-02 2.579880 6.643648 14.821860 31.134229 61.000053 110.894779 197.059971
2025-03-09 2.260462 6.174898 14.395579 31.357446 63.288651 117.856606 213.930276
2025-03-16 1.921676 5.594128 13.665258 30.923637 64.370020 122.883493 227.970001
2025-03-23 1.786785 5.473439 13.873335 32.344977 68.960038 134.187216 253.130074
2025-03-30 1.598218 5.176614 13.654935 32.868124 71.879430 142.718415 273.981843
2025-04-06 1.402314 4.815730 13.238267 32.923977 73.885327 149.719775 292.524674
2025-04-13 1.233638 4.489915 12.851846 32.992196 75.900689 156.827249 311.581186
2025-04-20 1.205738 4.568502 13.443661 35.261757 82.491920 172.686165 346.944518
2025-04-27 1.134148 4.498992 13.659211 36.701283 87.477123 185.794390 377.920757
2025-05-04 1.060925 4.407966 13.806803 37.994508 92.239546 198.711808 409.103016
2025-05-11 0.937472 4.121203 13.402751 37.949867 94.163031 206.286595 430.768679
2025-05-18 0.795776 3.731267 12.659130 37.003187 94.058699 209.898398 445.182519